ANRPC Now Expects 2020 Global NR Production to fall 6.8%

  • 2020-10-18 12:00:00
  • Reporter

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) recently released its report on Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics for September 2020.  

This keenly-awaited and widely-cited report reveals that during the January to August 2020 period, global NR production was fell by 8.7%, compared to the same period in 2019, to 7.778 million tonnes. Taking into account a 3.8% fall anticipated in the remaining four months of the year, the total production during the full year 2020 is anticipated at 12.901 million tonnes- a 6.8% fall from 2019. This revised outlook of global NR supply in 2020 is 1.9 percentage points lower than the outlook of 13.149 million tonnes reported a month ago, which would have been a 4.9% fall. 

During the January to August 2020 period, global NR consumption fell 11.7%, compared to the same period of 2019, at 8.151 million tonnes. The ANRPC notes that due to the lifting of lockdown and resumption of economic activities across countries, and a faster-than expected economic recovery in China, global NR consumption is projected to perform relatively better during the remaining four months of 2020, falling by just 1.8%, year-over-year. According to the Association, global NR consumption outlook for the full year 2020 is marginally upwardly revised to 12.611 million tonnes- down 8.4% from 2019. The outlook for 2020 reported in September was 12.544 million tonnes- a fall of 8.9% from the previous year. 

The ANRPC noted that NR prices improved further during September 2020, at varying degrees across different grades and different physical markets. Among the various grades and markets, RSS3 grade at FOB Bangkok performed well during the month, by averaging at 13.8% above the average it registered in August 2020.  Compared to the average prices the previous month, the average prices during September 2020 were up 5.9% for STR20 at FOB Bangkok, 4.7% for SMR20 at FOB Kuala Lumpur, 3.5% for RSS4 at Kottayam local market in India, and 4.6% for latex-in-bulk at Kuala Lumpur local market.  

Due to an outbreak in new COVID-19 infections in India’s main rubber-growing state of Kerala since early September, as well as the abnormal leaf fall caused by the outbreak of Phytophthora disease in July and August, estimates of the country’s NR production in 2020 has been scaled down by 42,000 tonnes to 668,000 tonnes, the ANRPC says.  India’s consumption outlook, meanwhile, has been scaled up from the 900,000 tonnes seen earlier to 923,000 tonnes, due primarily to an increase in auto sales. In September 2020, sales of passenger cars in India rose 31.3% year- on- year- the highest growth over the past 27 months.  

The ANRPC report noted that in India, local prices of RSS4 in Kottayam stayed almost stable during September. Prices averaged $182.70/per 100 kg during the month, 3.5% higher than the August average of $176.60/per 100 kg.  

 The Association of 13 rubber growing nations says the detailed analysis provided in the September 2020 issue of “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics” will give readers a clear understanding of the developments in NR markets across countries during the month, key drivers, and the undercurrents, both in the physical and futures markets. The short-term outlook helps in providing a clear understanding of emerging trends, along with the associated risk factors. 

Thanking the member governments for making available their most recent estimates and forecasts, along with supplementary information, Mr. R. B. Premadasa, Secretary-General of ANRPC, also acknowledged the Latin American Society of Rubber Technology (SLTC) for their information services.

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